"It is not what the man of science believes that distinguishes him, but how and why he believes it. His beliefs are tentative, not dogmatic; they are based on evidence, not on authority or intuition."

Bertrand Russell

For the Wasted Woody Climate Forecast, click here

Fellow Coloradans

Perhaps you've heard claims of a "global warming crisis" that our politicians are going to save us from, by reducing human production of carbon dioxide (CO2). You may also have heard that this noble crusade - by politicians - might cost you some money - a very small amount, of course. Should you support President Obama, Governor Ritter, the Colorado Legislature, and the others who tell you this? I don't believe so. And who am I, to disbelieve these fine people? I'm a meteorologist, with a Ph. D. in that subject, and a specialty in radiative transfer - the transmission of electromagnetic (infrared, IR) energy through the atmosphere. And no, I don't work for an energy company. Below are the reasons I don't believe in a "crisis."

There are many good reasons to be skeptical about man-made global warming, also called anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Note I say MAN-MADE warming, since the earth has warmed and cooled many times - often by much larger amounts than during the 20th Century - in the past. Indeed, that's one of several reasons to be skeptical. Those past warmings weren't caused by industrial activity - there wasn't any.

There are five major categories of reasons for skepticism:

  • Data is the basis of knowledge. We measure world temperature accurately. What does it show? Cooling!

  • Credibility of a source is important. Are "climate crisis" alarmists like Al Gore credible? No!

  • History , both instrumental and by proxies, tells us climate changes naturally, unforced by humans.

  • Mathematics , in the form of Chaos Theory, tells us that some systems - like the atmosphere and the oceans - cannot be accurately forecast beyond a short time. A two-week numerical weather forecast is impossible. A 100 year mathematical climate forecast based on a set of differential equations is also impossible.

  • Science is certainly important. Does physical science support claims about carbon dioxide (CO2) causing warming? See below.

Global Warming Science

The most important thing to know about global warming science is - of course - the most important lie. The lie claims that carbon dioxide, CO2, is an important greenhouse gas (GHG), and humans are causing it to increase. A greenhouse gas prevents heat, in the form of infrared (IR) radiation, from escaping from Earth and, yes, CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It just isn't a very important one (much less than water vapor (H2O)), there isn't much of it (less than 0.04% of the atmosphere), and almost all of it (96%) is natural. In addition, the warming response to increased CO2 is logarithmic, becoming smaller and smaller. Your "carbon footprint" - even Al Gore's, which is a lot, lot bigger - isn't important.

Some of the "global warming crisis" alarmists try to tell us the science is so complicated we ordinary mortals can't understand it (but that great scientist Al Gore, the "D" student can). That's not true; it's just tedious, and we're trying to get the big picture on this page. The tedious stuff is on a separate science page. Enjoy! But let's talk about something scientific that every American citizen can - and should - understand.

Modern science dates from the year 1620, when Sir Francis Bacon, Chancellor of England, perhaps the author of Francis BaconShakespeare's plays, a pretty smart guy, published a book, called "The New Organon." Bacon - a lawyer - had a low opinion of most people's observational ability, and didn't believe most people can reason logically. In it he established some rules we recognize as fundamental to science:

  • The scientist must consider all reasonable theories to explain the observed data, not pick only one.

  • The scientist's task is to be skeptical, and to attempt to disprove the proposed theories. Modern scientists have explicated this criterion: falsifiability . To be considered scientific, a theory must be capable of disproof; there's no point in being skeptical if a theory can't be disproven. This disqualifies intelligent design as science.

  • The scientist must make his/her data and a description of the experiment available to all, so they can replicate the experiment and see if they agree. In modern science, that includes computer program code. And answering questions.

Let's compare the "man-made global warming crisis" science (?) to these criteria.

  • Al Gore and friends have one, and only one, theory: CO2 is responsible. Changes in land use (clearing the tropical forests), variations in solar output, changes in galactic cosmic rays (GCR's), changes in ocean currents, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are not considered. Al Gore

  • Skeptical? See the science page for some skepticism about CO2 as an important greenhouse gas. It isn't. It's much less important than H2O and clouds. Yet these people routinely claim CO2 is "the gas that causes global warming."

  • For many years, James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science ranked the "hottest years in American climatology", claiming 1998 was the hottest, but refusing to release his calculations. Ooooops; in August, 2007, Steve McIntyre (www.climateaudit.org) proved him wrong. It was 1934. The real scandal is that Gore and others of the "great scientist" crowd let Hansen get away with this antiscientific behavior. Hansen is no scientist; he's a propagandist, who has enriched himself with these lies.

  • In recent years - as observational data confirms that world temperature is falling - climate alarmists crackpot are beginning to refer to "the climate change crisis", rather than global warming. This of course makes "climate change" no longer falsifiable . We can't disprove the theory of human effect on the climate if the theory doesn't tell us what the effect is supposed to be. Warming? Maybe. Cooling? Maybe. More drought, more flooding, more storms, fewer storms? Yes. More evidence that the alarmists are crackpots.
                

References

But wait, the "new, green economy" is going to create millions of new jobs, right? Wrong! Here's an analysis of the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) Cap & Trade Plan, being pushed by the governors of California, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, and Montana. Read the grim truth of the economic pain. In fairness to Governor Ritter, he's not officially behind this. On the other hand, he obviously spouts this nonsense with relish, encouraged by Obama.

So why do we continue to hear this "global warming crisis" nonsense, and what can we do about it??

Two reasons: politicians and The Media. What can we do about them?

Politicians

Don't imagine you will change the minds of Obama, Ritter, Udall, Bennett, and the rest by explaining science, or history, or observations to them, or by pointing out that Al Gore has no credibility. Those explanations are on this site for you, not them (but feel free to refer them here). This is about policy - the ability to tax you for emitting carbon, to control you by restricting your freedom, and to pay back the left-wing crackpots who elected Obama, Ritter, Udall, and others like them.

Earth Day 2009 is Wednesday, April 22nd. For Earth Day, phone or mail to your politicians, before they do anything more to screw you. You'll find their addresses on the impact page.

The Media

And who are the Media? Lots of them, nationally and locally. Most of them, for both ideological (i.e., they're left-wing) and business ("if it bleeds, it leads") reasons, like to hype the alarmist point of view. If you need convincing just how bad it is, visit the media page.

But, if we're going to have an impact, let's concentrate on the local Colorado media: Channel 4 (CBS), Channel 7 (ABC), Channel 9 (NBC), Channel 31 (Fox), and The Denver Post. You'll also find their contact points on the impact page. As before, don't imagine these people will change their minds because of science. Tell them you're sick and tired of their one-sided "reporting". They know the truth. They just don't want to admit it.

Man, you wimpy Americans are nothing like us Norsemen. I'm kind of ashamed of you - since, in a sense, I Leifwas the First American. We Norse found this continent a thousand years ago. Now you're letting Socialist politicians - like the ones I left behind in Europe - take it away from you. Lucky Leif

    Email Lucky Leif

     or mail your politicians

Rev.  Feb 09